A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
